The Missing Ice

Mario’s Log – August 15th, 2025

Many of my friends following this trip have expressed everything from concern to mild panic as we post images of wide open sounds, glassy fjords, and clear running seas completely free from any ice as we transit the Northwest Passage.  The poles we strapped to the hull to push large growlers out of our way, the neoprene gloves, the heavy Ursuit foul weather gear and insulation, since we entered the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, they’ve all stayed stowed. Last night, we sat up on the bridge as we motored into our anchorage. I thought about putting on sunscreen as I pulled off my sweater.  It was a layer too much as the temperature rose above 52 f.  The only ice we have seen since our anchorage at Fort Ross – almost 750 nautical miles ago – has been in our freezers.

But as my friend, Tony Russel, executive director of the Center for Arctic Study and Policy says, In the Arctic, there is no such thing as ‘ice free.’  After almost two weeks of what must qualify as the easiest transit through these waters – ever – we’re about to learn that our luck has been mostly that …luck.   As we look to the west, the picture looks very different. If the sea ice behind us has been melting earlier than usual, the ice to the west is well behind its average; perhaps four weeks behind.  The western exit to the archipelago is still, essentially, blocked.  How blocked?  For context, the 21,000 ton M/V Roald Amundsen, a Polar Class 6 ship designed to operate in 1.5 meter thick ice, has turned back once and stopped last night in her attempt to cross from the west to our side of the pack.

While Sarah-Sarah has a tough hull, crunching into a 1.5 meter thick growler may or may not end well for us. She can push through some ice, but pushing through 120 miles of the kind of ice that lies ahead of us would be – at the very least – a bad idea.  What waits for us after we get through the choke point above that leads to northern Alaska looks even worse.

While their is a clear(er) path along the Alaskan coast, the arrows within the ice on the chart above point in the direction of expected flow over the next 24 hours. Get caught between the land and the moving pack ice anywhere in that 580 nautical mile stretch of purple stuff? Well, that is what really bad looks like. If we are there, and the pack moves South and overtakes us, we stay there …for a very long time. The ice hasn’t been missing, we’ve been missing the ice; tons of it – 4 million tons of ice per square mile – have been out here, just waiting for us.

The Plan

There is only one reasonable thing to do when faced with these kinds of no-win choices; you wait for other choices. The only constant in the daily ice charts and satellite images has been the change in the charts and images. As we’ve been moving through the water, so has the ice. A comparison of the images from yesterday to this morning show notable change for the good. Though it is currently behind the norm for its melt, it is, in fact, melting. It is moving. It is, breaking up. The variable is when will it be broken up enough for us to safely transit through.

‘Safely’ is primarily about three things; concentration of the ice, the size of the floes, and the speed at which the ice is moving. We are here early. Things are, despite the sub freezing air temps that will great us as we move West, getting warmer. We do have some time to wait. As I write this, we are underway and heading for a nicely protected anchorage with the next one identified for tomorrow night. We will move, sit, wait, and watch. Then we will do it again. If we get to where moving is a bad idea, we won’t. We’ll just wait. When the ice opens enough for us to move through it, we will …very carefully.

For those of you who have been deeply disappointed by how easy we have had it so far, I assure you, our luck is changing. It will not all be warm weather and clear seas. We knew that when we started. We picked our routes to avoid the ice whenever we could. We chose our weather when we could, as well. We could do that because we were not – in any way – in a hurry. We are not on a schedule. We do not have the plans you have all been asking for. Plans are what gets you into trouble, sometimes. The ice does not attend planning meetings. It does not care about our trip. @ArcticSeaIce-Baby does not follow us on Instagram. But the ice is definitely out here. Waiting for us, just on the other side of our current horizon.